July 1, 2025 | Sharp U.S. policy shifts and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features. Long-term macro anchors are weaker given the many different potential outcomes. Yet immutable economic laws prevent policy from revamping the world overnight.

Investment themes

01 Investing in the here and now
Immutable economic laws limit how fast global trade and capital markets can evolve, providing more certainty about the near-term macro outlook than the long term. That keeps us pro risk and overweight U.S. equities.

02 Taking risk with no macro anchor
We believe this environment of transformation is better than the prior decade for achieving above-benchmark returns, or alpha. Yet the volatile macro environment injects risk into portfolios that needs to be actively managed or neutralized.

03 Finding anchors in mega forces
Even with the loss of long-term macro anchors, we believe mega forces are durable return drivers. Yet mega forces don’t map into broad return drivers, and we get granular to track their evolution across and within asset classes. We like the AI theme.

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Sharp U.S. policy shifts and elevated uncertainty make it seem the world is upended. What matters now for investors is getting a grip on this environment’s defining features. We have long argued that we entered a new macro regime marked by profound transformations, shaped by mega forces that could lead to many very different potential outcomes over time – for the trajectory and makeup of the global economy, inflation, government debt and deficits or global trade. 2025 has put this new regime into sharper relief, with serious discussion about the potential for fundamental changes to the structure of global markets.

Put another way, the loss of long-term macro anchors that have underpinned long-term asset allocation for decades is a defining feature of this new regime. But the global economy can’t be revamped overnight. Immutable economic laws – on global trade and debt financing – exist that policy cannot ignore in the near term. Attempts to break them are akin to trying to break laws of physics – and defy gravity – in our view.

Nobody knows where the macro environment is ultimately headed. But understanding these policy limits makes us more comfortable staying pro-risk on a tactical horizon.

Geopolitical fragmentation, AI and other mega forces are reshaping the trajectory and makeup of the global economy. This is not a cyclical adjustment but a structural one that can lead to many very different outcomes. Elevated uncertainty is a given. We start to get to grips with it by identifying a core feature of this environment: the loss of long-term macro anchors that markets have relied on for decades.

Inflation expectations are no longer firmly anchored near 2% targets. Fiscal discipline is ebbing away. The compensation investors want for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries is rising from suppressed levels. And confidence in institutional anchors – central bank independence and the haven role of U.S. assets – has been shaken.

We think that requires a new approach to risk taking. With long-run economic trajectories now ever-evolving, one would expect investors to search data for signals about where things are headed. This is exactly what we’ve seen. Equity returns have become more sensitive to short-term data as investors try to infer what it means about both the near and long term.

Questioning the future
Equity sensitivity to macro and trade uncertainty, 2004-2025

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